Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 14 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Amy Klobuchar be the next Senate Majority Leader?

14 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $97 held · ended Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$96.77

Combined PnL

-$188.95

Smart Money Entry

1.6¢ → 0.5¢

-65% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 14 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes14 traders

Total Value$96.77

Total Shares17,595

Combined PnL-$188.95

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

54h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 100% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
88 881112CTR	Yesavg 1.6¢	$169.19	$59.55	-$109.63	2% 7-427 (434)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$40.11	$14.12	-$25.99	59% 724-513 (1237)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$24.37	$8.58	-$15.79	53% 7024-6169 (13193)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$13.53	$4.76	-$8.77	39% 3636-5765 (9401)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$13.27	$1.82	-$9.37	43% 5066-6598 (11664)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$4.61	$1.62	-$2.99	18% 853-3919 (4772)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$5.94	$1.43	-$3.37	39% 1087-1669 (2756)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$7.5	$1.4	-$5.87	30% 240-572 (812)
TY TyshaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$2.97	$1.05	-$1.92	24% 39-122 (161)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$2.59	$0.91	-$1.68	34% 269-524 (793)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$2.56	$0.62	-$1.89	27% 688-1902 (2590)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$1.41	$0.5	-$0.92	23% 7-23 (30)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$0.75	$0.26	-$0.49	39% 28-44 (72)
LE LesterDiamondCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$0.41	$0.14	-$0.27	45% 38-47 (85)

881112CTR

Yes

Invested

$169.19

Value

$59.55

PnL

-$109.63

Record

7-427 (434)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.11

Value

$14.12

PnL

-$25.99

Record

59%

724-513 (1237)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.37

Value

$8.58

PnL

-$15.79

Record

53%

7024-6169 (13193)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.53

Value

$4.76

PnL

-$8.77

Record

39%

3636-5765 (9401)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.27

Value

$1.82

PnL

-$9.37

Record

43%

5066-6598 (11664)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.61

Value

$1.62

PnL

-$2.99

Record

18%

853-3919 (4772)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.94

Value

$1.43

PnL

-$3.37

Record

39%

1087-1669 (2756)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.5

Value

$1.4

PnL

-$5.87

Record

30%

240-572 (812)

TyshaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.97

Value

$1.05

PnL

-$1.92

Record

24%

39-122 (161)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.59

Value

$0.91

PnL

-$1.68

Record

34%

269-524 (793)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.56

Value

$0.62

PnL

-$1.89

Record

27%

688-1902 (2590)

GingerMcKennaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.41

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$0.92

Record

23%

7-23 (30)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.75

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$0.49

Record

39%

28-44 (72)

LesterDiamondCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.41

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$0.27

Record

45%

38-47 (85)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 14 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

54h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 100% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6107.17

Max Loss

-$100.00

6207.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.