Will Amazon have the best AI model on December 15, 2026?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $260 held · ends Dec 16

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Dec 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$260.34

Combined PnL

-$23.45

Smart Money Entry

99.5¢ → 99.7¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$259.73

Total Shares260

Combined PnL-$0.03

Yes5 traders

Total Value$0.61

Total Shares608

Combined PnL-$23.42

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$93.97	$94.91	+$0.94	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$49.94	$49.94	+$0	29% 1059-2631 (3690)
iutwpfal<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$79.92	$44.96	-$0.97	— 10-4 (14)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$39.96	$39.96	+$0	30% 187-428 (615)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.97	$29.97	+$0	29% 185-443 (628)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$12.03	$0.42	-$11.6	39% 3479-5356 (8835)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$43.03	$0.12	-$4.05	45% 4955-6107 (11062)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.71	$0.03	-$0.69	41% 1570-2276 (3846)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.57	$0.02	-$0.55	8% 9-109 (118)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$15.54	$0.02	-$6.53	18% 838-3799 (4637)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$93.97

Value

$94.91

PnL

+$0.94

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$49.94

Value

$49.94

PnL

+$0

Record

29%

1059-2631 (3690)

iutwpfal<$100

Invested

$79.92

Value

$44.96

PnL

-$0.97

Record

—

10-4 (14)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$39.96

Value

$39.96

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

187-428 (615)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$0

Record

29%

185-443 (628)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.03

Value

$0.42

PnL

-$11.6

Record

39%

3479-5356 (8835)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.03

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$4.05

Record

45%

4955-6107 (11062)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.71

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.69

Record

41%

1570-2276 (3846)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.57

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.55

Record

9-109 (118)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.54

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$6.53

Record

18%

838-3799 (4637)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.