Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $122 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$121.83
-$11.69
96.9¢ → 100¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Mature
43h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $51 | $50 | -$1 | 14% 461-2758 (3219) |
QW qwen300.fund | Noavg 99.1¢ | $124.45 | $44.46 | -$0.7 | 59% 11839-8177 (20016) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $23.97 | $23.93 | -$0.04 | 50% 659-658 (1317) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.7¢ | $11.06 | $2.7 | -$8.36 | 35% 18159-34016 (52175) |
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.54 | $0.54 | -$1.6 | 29% 2440-5849 (8289) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100 | Yes | $0.2 | $0.2 | +$0 | 39% 1087-1679 (2766) |
Istaroth<$100Invested
$51
Value
$50
PnL
-$1
Record
14%
461-2758 (3219)
Invested
$124.45
Value
$44.46
PnL
-$0.7
Record
59%
11839-8177 (20016)
Invested
$23.97
Value
$23.93
PnL
-$0.04
Record
50%
659-658 (1317)
Invested
$11.06
Value
$2.7
PnL
-$8.36
Record
35%
18159-34016 (52175)
Invested
$0.54
Value
$0.54
PnL
-$1.6
Record
29%
2440-5849 (8289)
Invested
$0.2
Value
$0.2
PnL
+$0
Record
39%
1087-1679 (2766)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.