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1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 51¢ · $2K held · ends Mar 15, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$2.3K
$913.91
Research grade
NeutralNo at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754 | Noavg 45.2¢ | $2.2K | $1.6K | +$462.47 | — 1-1 (2) |
GA GaditimaCTR | Yesavg 15.9¢ | $156.57 | $477.76 | +$321.19 | 40% 306-460 (766) |
 2B9SCTR | Yesavg 14¢ | $42 | $147 | +$103.5 | 18% 3759-16667 (20426) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 31.8¢ | $87.58 | $118.97 | +$31.39 | 36% 14490-25940 (40430) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 57.5¢ | $30.66 | $18.61 | -$4.64 | 57% 12861-9776 (22637) |
Invested
$2,178.77
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$462.47
Record
—
1-1 (2)
Invested
$156.57
Value
$477.76
PnL
+$321.19
Record
40%
306-460 (766)
2B9SCTRInvested
$42
Value
$147
PnL
+$103.5
Record
18%
3759-16667 (20426)
Invested
$87.58
Value
$118.97
PnL
+$31.39
Record
36%
14490-25940 (40430)
Invested
$30.66
Value
$18.61
PnL
-$4.64
Record
57%
12861-9776 (22637)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.