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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.

Will Alphabet’s market capitalization be between $4.00T and $4.50T at the end of October 2026?

Resolved No. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0

Combined PnL

-$551

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares580

Combined PnL-$551

No2 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares0

Combined PnL+$0

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SB sbimbgCTR	Yesavg 52¢	$312	—	-$551	70% 3144-1356 (4500)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 92.4¢	—	—	+$0	61% 21044-13396 (34440)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 47¢	—	—	+$0	45% 1862-2292 (4154)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 50¢	—	—	+$0	53% 6516-5727 (12243)
viniiCTR<$100	Yesavg 50.4¢	—	—	+$0	74% 2724-977 (3701)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 48¢	—	—	+$0	52% 2457-2279 (4736)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 33¢	—	—	+$0	32% 4419-9499 (13918)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100	Yesavg 45¢	—	—	+$0	56% 15296-11843 (27139)
IstarothCTR<$100	Yesavg 50.2¢	—	—	+$0	20% 308-1212 (1520)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 48¢	—	—	+$0	36% 15393-27456 (42849)

Invested

$312

Value

—

PnL

-$551

Record

70%

3144-1356 (4500)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

21044-13396 (34440)

123987456CTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

1862-2292 (4154)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

6516-5727 (12243)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

74%

2724-977 (3701)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

2457-2279 (4736)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

32%

4419-9499 (13918)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

15296-11843 (27139)

IstarothCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

20%

308-1212 (1520)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

15393-27456 (42849)

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x6517568b...770ddb

Slug

will-alphabets-market-capitalization-be-between-4pt00t-and-4pt50t-at-the-end-of-october-2026

Traders in this Market

sbimbg

Yes — $0

balthazar

No — $0

123987456

Yes — $0

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Yes — $0

vinii

Yes — $0

merod

No — $0

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Yes — $0

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Yes — $0

Istaroth

Yes — $0

xtxpleasecallme

Yes — $0

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