Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026?
8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 92¢ · $535 held
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 80%
$534.95
$2.93
91.8¢ → 92.1¢
+0% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LP lpgb | Noavg 90.6¢ | $211.35 | $214.92 | +$3.58 | 24% 291-898 (1189) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 91.3¢ | $120.75 | $119.79 | -$0.73 | 16% 416-2180 (2596) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 87.2¢ | $43.8 | $46.25 | +$2.46 | 79% 10898-2965 (13863) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $49 | $43.9 | -$5.1 | 40% 5228-7923 (13151) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 95.4¢ | $42.92 | $39.49 | -$3.43 | 60% 10619-7212 (17831) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 91.2¢ | $19.97 | $19.23 | -$0.74 | 17% 1056-5089 (6145) |
SP SpringlyFawl<$100 | Noavg 92.5¢ | $18.5 | $17.56 | -$0.94 | 30% 2226-5182 (7408) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 96.5¢ | $19.29 | $17.55 | -$1.74 | 54% 26594-22226 (48820) |
HA HauchnCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $2.18 | $8.62 | +$6.44 | 37% 64-109 (173) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.5¢ | $4.49 | $7.63 | +$3.14 | 35% 17266-31860 (49126) |
Invested
$211.35
Value
$214.92
PnL
+$3.58
Record
24%
291-898 (1189)
IstarothInvested
$120.75
Value
$119.79
PnL
-$0.73
Record
16%
416-2180 (2596)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$43.8
Value
$46.25
PnL
+$2.46
Record
79%
10898-2965 (13863)
Invested
$49
Value
$43.9
PnL
-$5.1
Record
40%
5228-7923 (13151)
Invested
$42.92
Value
$39.49
PnL
-$3.43
Record
60%
10619-7212 (17831)
Invested
$19.97
Value
$19.23
PnL
-$0.74
Record
17%
1056-5089 (6145)
Invested
$18.5
Value
$17.56
PnL
-$0.94
Record
30%
2226-5182 (7408)
balthazar<$100Invested
$19.29
Value
$17.55
PnL
-$1.74
Record
54%
26594-22226 (48820)
Invested
$2.18
Value
$8.62
PnL
+$6.44
Record
37%
64-109 (173)
Invested
$4.49
Value
$7.63
PnL
+$3.14
Record
35%
17266-31860 (49126)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.