Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026?

4 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (22%) · No at 100¢ · $366 held · ends Dec 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 22%

Total Value

$365.59

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

45.9¢ → 100¢

+118% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 18 top traders (22%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$363.93

Total Shares364

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Yes14 traders

Total Value$1.66

Total Shares3,317

Combined PnL+$171

No — 22%Yes — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

71h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 78% · 18

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702	Noavg 5.2¢	$84.67	$207.29	+$1.0K	38% 1203-1988 (3191)
Lucerys	Noavg 99.9¢	$900.43	$103.65	-$11.49	72% 13841-5375 (19216)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 99.9¢	$129.85	$39.99	+$0.03	54% 12480-10794 (23274)
LU luciebot	Noavg 99.9¢	$124.05	$13	-$0.16	28% 2803-7231 (10034)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$2.7	$0.35	+$258.18	34% 19214-36845 (56059)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$1.3	$0.27	-$21.58	39% 315-496 (811)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$44.74	$0.2	-$43.74	31% 3256-7119 (10375)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$8.43	$0.14	-$7.9	30% 463-1104 (1567)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.75	$0.14	+$0.06	27% 2525-6883 (9408)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.26	$0.13	-$0.13	48% 10361-11042 (21403)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.43	$0.1	-$8.18	21% 356-1339 (1695)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.48	$0.09	-$0.27	42% 837-1172 (2009)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.17	$0.08	-$0.02	26% 581-1648 (2229)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.2¢	$1.57	$0.05	-$1.53	40% 6536-9791 (16327)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.2¢	$2.39	$0.05	-$2.35	34% 3324-6350 (9674)
PI PiEDawgCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.49	$0.04	-$0.3	35% 1829-3402 (5231)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yes	$0.02	$0.02	-$1.14	16% 383-1960 (2343)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.13	$0.01	-$0.12	23% 1791-6025 (7816)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702

Invested

$84.67

Value

$207.29

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

38%

1203-1988 (3191)

Lucerys

Invested

$900.43

Value

$103.65

PnL

-$11.49

Record

72%

13841-5375 (19216)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$129.85

Value

$39.99

PnL

+$0.03

Record

54%

12480-10794 (23274)

luciebot

Invested

$124.05

Value

$13

PnL

-$0.16

Record

28%

2803-7231 (10034)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.7

Value

$0.35

PnL

+$258.18

Record

34%

19214-36845 (56059)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.3

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$21.58

Record

39%

315-496 (811)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.74

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$43.74

Record

31%

3256-7119 (10375)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.43

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$7.9

Record

30%

463-1104 (1567)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.75

Value

$0.14

PnL

+$0.06

Record

27%

2525-6883 (9408)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.26

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$0.13

Record

48%

10361-11042 (21403)

VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.43

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$8.18

Record

21%

356-1339 (1695)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.48

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$0.27

Record

42%

837-1172 (2009)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.17

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$0.02

Record

26%

581-1648 (2229)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.57

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$1.53

Record

40%

6536-9791 (16327)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.39

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$2.35

Record

34%

3324-6350 (9674)

PiEDawgCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.49

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.3

Record

35%

1829-3402 (5231)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.14

Record

16%

383-1960 (2343)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.13

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.12

Record

23%

1791-6025 (7816)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 18 top traders (22%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

71h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 78% · 18

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.