Will Alisa Simmons win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 53¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
1 arb excluded
$1.9K
$257.24
56.9¢ → 53¢
-7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 FrozenParasite | Yesavg 62.1¢ | $126.09 | $898.98 | +$146.05 | 55% 455-368 (823) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 52.6¢ | $772.64 | $624.19 | -$30.17 | 36% 15264-27350 (42614) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 52.6¢ | $367.37 | $331.87 | -$45.84 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 49.7¢ | $276.75 | $292.32 | +$15.67 | |
 EsperanzasDESTROYER | Yesavg 26.8¢ | $63 | $168.31 | +$105.31 | 56% 46-36 (82) |
 Istaroth | Yesavg 59.6¢ | $120.65 | $120.32 | -$0.33 | 21% 295-1102 (1397) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $91.2 | $97.41 | +$6.21 | 61% 20945-13330 (34275) |
FrozenParasiteInvested
$126.09
Value
$898.98
PnL
+$146.05
Record
55%
455-368 (823)
Invested
$772.64
Value
$624.19
PnL
-$30.17
Record
36%
15264-27350 (42614)
Both legs:
EsperanzasDESTROYERInvested
$63
Value
$168.31
PnL
+$105.31
Record
56%
46-36 (82)
IstarothInvested
$120.65
Value
$120.32
PnL
-$0.33
Record
21%
295-1102 (1397)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$91.2
Value
$97.41
PnL
+$6.21
Record
61%
20945-13330 (34275)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.