Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 99¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$1.4K
$41.15
95.6¢ → 98.6¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 HorribleWork | Noavg 97¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$18.74 | 60% 462-305 (767) |
 smellyEllie | Noavg 89.2¢ | $217.52 | $238.44 | +$23.36 | 50% 935-946 (1881) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $4.73 | $6.82 | +$2.09 | 60% 3221-2159 (5380) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.8¢ | $10.5 | $6.05 | -$4.45 | 36% 14598-26253 (40851) |
 Rex416CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $4.21 | $5.63 | +$1.42 | 57% 2500-1898 (4398) |
HorribleWorkInvested
$1,084.17
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$18.74
Record
60%
462-305 (767)
smellyEllieInvested
$217.52
Value
$238.44
PnL
+$23.36
Record
50%
935-946 (1881)
Invested
$4.73
Value
$6.82
PnL
+$2.09
Record
60%
3221-2159 (5380)
Invested
$10.5
Value
$6.05
PnL
-$4.45
Record
36%
14598-26253 (40851)
Rex416CTR<$100Invested
$4.21
Value
$5.63
PnL
+$1.42
Record
57%
2500-1898 (4398)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.