Will Alibaba be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 89¢ · $201 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$201.34
$2.58
85.8¢ → 88.5¢
+3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 60%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $58.8 | $61.95 | +$3.15 | 41% 3126-4493 (7619) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $56.32 | $55.42 | -$0.9 | 27% 105-283 (388) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $25.5 | $26.55 | +$1.05 | 17% 76-374 (450) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $21.28 | $21.38 | +$0.1 | 3% 1-28 (29) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $17 | $17.7 | +$0.7 | 53% 5689-5114 (10803) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $14.4 | $13.86 | -$0.54 | 39% 1309-2008 (3317) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $5.46 | $4.49 | -$0.97 | 10% 3-28 (31) |
Invested
$58.8
Value
$61.95
PnL
+$3.15
Record
41%
3126-4493 (7619)
Invested
$56.32
Value
$55.42
PnL
-$0.9
Record
27%
105-283 (388)
Invested
$25.5
Value
$26.55
PnL
+$1.05
Record
17%
76-374 (450)
Invested
$21.28
Value
$21.38
PnL
+$0.1
Record
3%
1-28 (29)
Invested
$17
Value
$17.7
PnL
+$0.7
Record
53%
5689-5114 (10803)
Invested
$14.4
Value
$13.86
PnL
-$0.54
Record
39%
1309-2008 (3317)
Invested
$5.46
Value
$4.49
PnL
-$0.97
Record
10%
3-28 (31)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.