Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 54¢ · $385 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$384.75
-$33.14
59.2¢ → 54¢
-9% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Mature
39h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 64.4¢ | $169.2 | $144.02 | -$25.18 | 41% 3116-4481 (7597) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 49¢ | $98 | $98 | +$0 | 48% 1228-1315 (2543) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 51.7¢ | $64.6 | $63.75 | -$0.85 | 27% 936-2514 (3450) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $29.29 | $29 | -$0.29 | 10% 3-26 (29) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 46.5¢ | $18.6 | $20.4 | +$1.8 | 51% 4649-4526 (9175) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $28 | $20.4 | -$7.6 | 49% 87-90 (177) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $5.8 | $5.1 | -$0.7 | 30% 2706-6209 (8915) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $4.4 | $4.08 | -$0.32 | 39% 1297-2005 (3302) |
Invested
$169.2
Value
$144.02
PnL
-$25.18
Record
41%
3116-4481 (7597)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100Invested
$98
Value
$98
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
1228-1315 (2543)
Invested
$64.6
Value
$63.75
PnL
-$0.85
Record
27%
936-2514 (3450)
Invested
$29.29
Value
$29
PnL
-$0.29
Record
10%
3-26 (29)
balthazar<$100Invested
$18.6
Value
$20.4
PnL
+$1.8
Record
51%
4649-4526 (9175)
Invested
$28
Value
$20.4
PnL
-$7.6
Record
49%
87-90 (177)
Invested
$5.8
Value
$5.1
PnL
-$0.7
Record
30%
2706-6209 (8915)
Invested
$4.4
Value
$4.08
PnL
-$0.32
Record
39%
1297-2005 (3302)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.