Will Alibaba be the second-best AI lab at the end of January 2027?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 93¢ · $94 held · ends Feb 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$93.72
$8.87
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
56h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $47.5 | $42.91 | -$4.58 | 59% 11839-8177 (20016) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $29.04 | $26.83 | -$2.2 | 14% 461-2758 (3219) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.9¢ | $8.85 | $15.83 | +$9.45 | 35% 18159-34016 (52175) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $0.8 | $6.17 | +$5.36 | 20% 2590-10277 (12867) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $2.26 | $1.98 | +$0.84 | 32% 2522-5398 (7920) |
Invested
$47.5
Value
$42.91
PnL
-$4.58
Record
59%
11839-8177 (20016)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$29.04
Value
$26.83
PnL
-$2.2
Record
14%
461-2758 (3219)
Invested
$8.85
Value
$15.83
PnL
+$9.45
Record
35%
18159-34016 (52175)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.8
Value
$6.17
PnL
+$5.36
Record
20%
2590-10277 (12867)
Invested
$2.26
Value
$1.98
PnL
+$0.84
Record
32%
2522-5398 (7920)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.