Will Alfonso Martínez Alcázar win the 2027 Michoacán Governor Election?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 94¢ · $410 held · ends Jun 7, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$409.77
$3.44
92.1¢ → 94.3¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 paddaa | Noavg 87.6¢ | $200 | $214.37 | +$14.37 | 57% 813-625 (1438) |
BI Bigggggggg | Noavg 99.8¢ | $143.68 | $135.19 | -$8.49 | 46% 2729-3263 (5992) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 90.6¢ | $44.74 | $46.36 | +$1.63 | 61% 20509-12859 (33368) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.8¢ | $13.97 | $11.94 | -$2.03 | 36% 14556-26000 (40556) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.6¢ | $3.95 | $1.91 | -$2.04 | 77% 11055-3381 (14436) |
paddaaInvested
$200
Value
$214.37
PnL
+$14.37
Record
57%
813-625 (1438)
Invested
$143.68
Value
$135.19
PnL
-$8.49
Record
46%
2729-3263 (5992)
balthazar<$100Invested
$44.74
Value
$46.36
PnL
+$1.63
Record
61%
20509-12859 (33368)
Invested
$13.97
Value
$11.94
PnL
-$2.03
Record
36%
14556-26000 (40556)
Invested
$3.95
Value
$1.91
PnL
-$2.04
Record
77%
11055-3381 (14436)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.