Will Alexandre Pantoja become UFC champion in 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 99¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.3K
$10.82
93.8¢ → 98.6¢
+5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0x3mf379C47E653dafa153841a995Cf975B6a02fxd | Noavg 98¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$7.08 | 68% 293-138 (431) |
JE Jest55<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $10.2 | $49 | +$38.8 | 75% 1015-336 (1351) |
LE leegunner<$100 | Noavg 75.7¢ | $23.29 | $43.71 | +$20.42 | 41% 1276-1822 (3098) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.1¢ | $44.76 | $14.14 | -$30.62 | 36% 14865-26983 (41848) |
 siickCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $26.08 | $1.39 | -$24.86 | 57% 762-577 (1339) |
0x3mf379C47E653dafa153841a995Cf975B6a02fxdInvested
$1,197.66
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$7.08
Record
68%
293-138 (431)
Invested
$10.2
Value
$49
PnL
+$38.8
Record
75%
1015-336 (1351)
Invested
$23.29
Value
$43.71
PnL
+$20.42
Record
41%
1276-1822 (3098)
Invested
$44.76
Value
$14.14
PnL
-$30.62
Record
36%
14865-26983 (41848)
siickCTR<$100Invested
$26.08
Value
$1.39
PnL
-$24.86
Record
57%
762-577 (1339)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.