Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 15 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Alex Pereira be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

15 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $2 held · ends Dec 31

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$1.68

Combined PnL

-$206.96

Smart Money Entry

5.3¢ → 0.1¢

-99% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

15 of 15 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes15 traders

Total Value$1.68

Total Shares3,351

Combined PnL-$206.96

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AL alex20011CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$67.94	$0.6	-$67.24	44% 1109-1422 (2531)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$33.42	$0.32	-$33.1	63% 444-260 (704)
KL klli27CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$32.94	$0.31	-$32.63	28% 525-1373 (1898)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$7.98	$0.08	-$7.9	29% 888-2164 (3052)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$7.63	$0.07	-$7.56	33% 70-142 (212)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$7.4	$0.07	-$7.33	47% 4795-5410 (10205)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$32.11	$0.06	-$31.56	30% 2929-6854 (9783)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$6.26	$0.06	-$6.2	38% 58-96 (154)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$5.16	$0.03	-$5.09	7% 2-28 (30)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$2.38	$0.02	-$2.36	37% 65-109 (174)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$2.03	$0.02	-$2.02	40% 3217-4824 (8041)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$1.77	$0.02	-$1.76	52% 1614-1484 (3098)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$1.05	$0.01	-$1.04	28% 530-1383 (1913)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$0.7	$0.01	-$0.7	37% 3428-5859 (9287)
VA vamosgamingCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$0.47	$0	-$0.47	0% 0-214 (214)

alex20011CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$67.94

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$67.24

Record

44%

1109-1422 (2531)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.42

Value

$0.32

PnL

-$33.1

Record

63%

444-260 (704)

klli27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.94

Value

$0.31

PnL

-$32.63

Record

28%

525-1373 (1898)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.98

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$7.9

Record

29%

888-2164 (3052)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.63

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$7.56

Record

33%

70-142 (212)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.4

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$7.33

Record

47%

4795-5410 (10205)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.11

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$31.56

Record

30%

2929-6854 (9783)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.26

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$6.2

Record

38%

58-96 (154)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.16

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.09

Record

2-28 (30)

korda77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.38

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.36

Record

37%

65-109 (174)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.03

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.02

Record

40%

3217-4824 (8041)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.77

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.76

Record

52%

1614-1484 (3098)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.04

Record

28%

530-1383 (1913)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.7

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.7

Record

37%

3428-5859 (9287)

vamosgamingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.47

Value

PnL

-$0.47

Record

0-214 (214)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

15 of 15 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.