Will Aleš Vrhovec win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election?
10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (77%) · No at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
13
No 77%
$1.9K
-$25.71
98.7¢ → 99¢
+0% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 98.2¢ | $812.2 | $806.83 | -$5.37 | 61% 20510-12860 (33370) |
KL klli27 | Noavg 99¢ | $143.86 | $141.75 | -$2.11 | 31% 279-608 (887) |
LI Likaseent | Noavg 99¢ | $139.85 | $137.8 | -$2.05 | 30% 184-437 (621) |
VA Vale54holi | Noavg 99¢ | $139.85 | $137.8 | -$2.05 | 28% 159-408 (567) |
AK akroll | Noavg 99.6¢ | $140.67 | $137.8 | -$2.87 | 32% 304-636 (940) |
PO pollo07 | Noavg 99¢ | $139.85 | $137.8 | -$2.05 | 32% 303-642 (945) |
KA kaxel78 | Noavg 99¢ | $139.85 | $137.8 | -$2.05 | 31% 251-564 (815) |
AL alex20011 | Noavg 99¢ | $139.85 | $137.8 | -$2.05 | 48% 3408-3679 (7087) |
ZE zerone777 | Noavg 99¢ | $139.85 | $137.8 | -$2.05 | 41% 379-537 (916) |
VA vamosgaming<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $24.75 | $24.39 | -$0.36 | 27% 195-522 (717) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $11.33 | $8.71 | -$2.62 | 36% 14558-26031 (40589) |
 Hannah-MontanaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $2.48 | $2.28 | -$0.2 | 68% 203-97 (300) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $0.07 | $0.18 | +$0.11 | 57% 12905-9825 (22730) |
balthazarInvested
$812.2
Value
$806.83
PnL
-$5.37
Record
61%
20510-12860 (33370)
Invested
$143.86
Value
$141.75
PnL
-$2.11
Record
31%
279-608 (887)
Invested
$139.85
Value
$137.8
PnL
-$2.05
Record
30%
184-437 (621)
Invested
$139.85
Value
$137.8
PnL
-$2.05
Record
28%
159-408 (567)
Invested
$140.67
Value
$137.8
PnL
-$2.87
Record
32%
304-636 (940)
Invested
$139.85
Value
$137.8
PnL
-$2.05
Record
32%
303-642 (945)
Invested
$139.85
Value
$137.8
PnL
-$2.05
Record
31%
251-564 (815)
Invested
$139.85
Value
$137.8
PnL
-$2.05
Record
48%
3408-3679 (7087)
Invested
$139.85
Value
$137.8
PnL
-$2.05
Record
41%
379-537 (916)
Invested
$24.75
Value
$24.39
PnL
-$0.36
Record
27%
195-522 (717)
Invested
$11.33
Value
$8.71
PnL
-$2.62
Record
36%
14558-26031 (40589)
Hannah-MontanaCTR<$100Invested
$2.48
Value
$2.28
PnL
-$0.2
Record
68%
203-97 (300)
Invested
$0.07
Value
$0.18
PnL
+$0.11
Record
57%
12905-9825 (22730)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.