Will Aleksandar Čupić win the next Serbia presidential election?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 87¢ · $755 held · ends May 2, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 100%
$754.75
$76.1
80¢ → 87.4¢
+9% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 53%
Freshness
Late
49h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund | Noavg 78.3¢ | $213.97 | $238.84 | +$24.87 | 29% 2560-6176 (8736) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 79.7¢ | $144.09 | $158.46 | +$14.37 | 41% 3059-4446 (7505) |
 Haradwaith | Noavg 84¢ | $201.6 | $81.08 | +$10.09 | 50% 22-22 (44) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $69.27 | $79.7 | +$10.43 | 36% 3035-5349 (8384) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 79.2¢ | $68.66 | $75.8 | +$7.14 | 40% 1420-2155 (3575) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 86.8¢ | $66.48 | $65.04 | -$1.44 | 13% 16-109 (125) |
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100 | Noavg 83.2¢ | $81.46 | $38.34 | +$9.1 | — 7-12 (19) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 79.6¢ | $15.92 | $17.48 | +$1.56 | 53% 5440-4884 (10324) |
Invested
$213.97
Value
$238.84
PnL
+$24.87
Record
29%
2560-6176 (8736)
Invested
$144.09
Value
$158.46
PnL
+$14.37
Record
41%
3059-4446 (7505)
HaradwaithInvested
$201.6
Value
$81.08
PnL
+$10.09
Record
50%
22-22 (44)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$69.27
Value
$79.7
PnL
+$10.43
Record
36%
3035-5349 (8384)
Invested
$68.66
Value
$75.8
PnL
+$7.14
Record
40%
1420-2155 (3575)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$66.48
Value
$65.04
PnL
-$1.44
Record
13%
16-109 (125)
Invested
$81.46
Value
$38.34
PnL
+$9.1
Record
—
7-12 (19)
Invested
$15.92
Value
$17.48
PnL
+$1.56
Record
53%
5440-4884 (10324)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.