Will AI solve 5 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?

15 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold No (68%) · No at 99¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 68%

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

-$17.29

Smart Money Entry

99.4¢ → 99¢

+0% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 22 top traders (68%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No15 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares5,085

Combined PnL-$4.77

Yes7 traders

Total Value$12.56

Total Shares2,094

Combined PnL-$12.52

No — 68%Yes — 32%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

257h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

68% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (22 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 68% · 22

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 99.5¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$4.05	53% 29396-26298 (55694)
DO donthackme	Noavg 99.3¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$0.21	73% 12907-4853 (17760)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 99.6¢	$637.29	$635.52	-$1.77	42% 3173-4329 (7502)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73	Noavg 99.1¢	$298.19	$297.2	+$0.44	40% 291-436 (727)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 99.3¢	$258.89	$258.93	+$0.04	59% 11938-8372 (20310)
GR graynotebook19	Noavg 99.3¢	$178.71	$178.74	+$0.03	61% 14883-9337 (24220)
ZE zerone777	Noavg 99¢	$168.21	$168.78	+$0.57	39% 550-849 (1399)
PO pollo07<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$89.54	$89.72	+$0.18	33% 461-944 (1405)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$67.19	$67.33	+$0.14	32% 427-897 (1324)
AK akroll<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$53.37	$53.47	+$0.11	33% 468-943 (1411)
VA Vale54holi<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$51.38	$51.49	+$0.1	33% 307-630 (937)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$49.38	$49.19	-$0.19	44% 6509-8177 (14686)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$39.95	$39.72	-$0.22	31% 3522-7876 (11398)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$37.52	$37.73	+$0.22	49% 8853-9361 (18214)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$24.98	$24.83	-$0.15	42% 7033-9821 (16854)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$8.57	$5.56	-$3.01	27% 6898-18905 (25803)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$1.3	$3.91	+$2.6	20% 2607-10331 (12938)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$3.11	$1.99	-$1.11	35% 18318-34086 (52404)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$1.04	$0.52	-$0.52	53% 8266-7377 (15643)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yes	$0.26	$0.26	-$6.72	17% 1254-6014 (7268)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yes	$0.16	$0.16	-$4.18	26% 506-1406 (1912)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.21	$0.16	+$0.42	58% 19680-14468 (34148)

balthazar

Invested

$1,818.05

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$4.05

Record

53%

29396-26298 (55694)

donthackme

Invested

$1,282.51

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$0.21

Record

73%

12907-4853 (17760)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$637.29

Value

$635.52

PnL

-$1.77

Record

42%

3173-4329 (7502)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73

Invested

$298.19

Value

$297.2

PnL

+$0.44

Record

40%

291-436 (727)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$258.89

Value

$258.93

PnL

+$0.04

Record

59%

11938-8372 (20310)

graynotebook19

Invested

$178.71

Value

$178.74

PnL

+$0.03

Record

61%

14883-9337 (24220)

zerone777

Invested

$168.21

Value

$168.78

PnL

+$0.57

Record

39%

550-849 (1399)

pollo07<$100

Invested

$89.54

Value

$89.72

PnL

+$0.18

Record

33%

461-944 (1405)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$67.19

Value

$67.33

PnL

+$0.14

Record

32%

427-897 (1324)

akroll<$100

Invested

$53.37

Value

$53.47

PnL

+$0.11

Record

33%

468-943 (1411)

Vale54holi<$100

Invested

$51.38

Value

$51.49

PnL

+$0.1

Record

33%

307-630 (937)

korda77<$100

Invested

$49.38

Value

$49.19

PnL

-$0.19

Record

44%

6509-8177 (14686)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

$39.95

Value

$39.72

PnL

-$0.22

Record

31%

3522-7876 (11398)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$37.52

Value

$37.73

PnL

+$0.22

Record

49%

8853-9361 (18214)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$24.98

Value

$24.83

PnL

-$0.15

Record

42%

7033-9821 (16854)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.57

Value

$5.56

PnL

-$3.01

Record

27%

6898-18905 (25803)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.3

Value

$3.91

PnL

+$2.6

Record

20%

2607-10331 (12938)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.11

Value

$1.99

PnL

-$1.11

Record

35%

18318-34086 (52404)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.04

Value

$0.52

PnL

-$0.52

Record

53%

8266-7377 (15643)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.26

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$6.72

Record

17%

1254-6014 (7268)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.16

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$4.18

Record

26%

506-1406 (1912)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.21

Value

$0.16

PnL

+$0.42

Record

58%

19680-14468 (34148)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 22 top traders (68%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

257h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

68% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (22 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 68% · 22

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.