Will "Adin Ross's Team" win Nozempic 2?

3 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 97¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13

Yes97¢No3¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 20%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$97.24

Smart Money Entry

74.7¢ → 96.8¢

+30% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 15 top traders (20%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,401

Combined PnL+$312.67

No12 traders

Total Value$29.74

Total Shares915

Combined PnL-$215.43

Yes — 20%No — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (14 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 8

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Relaccsed	Yesavg 66.4¢	$451.23	$657.26	+$206.03	— 10-1 (11)
TA taemaxx	Yesavg 87.1¢	$572.23	$635.49	+$63.27	— 2-1 (3)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$46.01	$63.11	+$43.38	24% 82-266 (348)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 11¢	$33	$9.75	-$23.25	13% 28-182 (210)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Noavg 36.3¢	$54.47	$4.88	-$49.59	40% 1462-2159 (3621)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 58.7¢	$75.07	$4.15	-$70.92	41% 3164-4511 (7675)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 27.4¢	$27.4	$3.25	-$24.15	53% 5815-5180 (10995)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 40.5¢	$40.5	$3.25	-$37.25	51% 4761-4565 (9326)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 3¢	$1.5	$1.63	+$0.13	79% 473-126 (599)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 16.6¢	$4.19	$0.82	-$3.37	45% 457-548 (1005)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 19.5¢	$2.98	$0.5	-$2.48	46% 477-554 (1031)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 6.3¢	$0.96	$0.49	-$0.47	48% 462-508 (970)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 20¢	$2.87	$0.47	-$2.4	43% 773-1033 (1806)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 3¢	$0.3	$0.33	+$0.03	50% 445-444 (889)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 27¢	$1.93	$0.23	-$1.7	52% 431-401 (832)

Relaccsed

Yes

Invested

$451.23

Value

$657.26

PnL

+$206.03

Record

—

10-1 (11)

taemaxx

Yes

Invested

$572.23

Value

$635.49

PnL

+$63.27

Record

—

2-1 (3)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.01

Value

$63.11

PnL

+$43.38

Record

24%

82-266 (348)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$33

Value

$9.75

PnL

-$23.25

Record

13%

28-182 (210)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Invested

$54.47

Value

$4.88

PnL

-$49.59

Record

40%

1462-2159 (3621)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$75.07

Value

$4.15

PnL

-$70.92

Record

41%

3164-4511 (7675)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$27.4

Value

$3.25

PnL

-$24.15

Record

53%

5815-5180 (10995)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$40.5

Value

$3.25

PnL

-$37.25

Record

51%

4761-4565 (9326)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.63

PnL

+$0.13

Record

79%

473-126 (599)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$4.19

Value

$0.82

PnL

-$3.37

Record

45%

457-548 (1005)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$2.98

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$2.48

Record

46%

477-554 (1031)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$0.96

Value

$0.49

PnL

-$0.47

Record

48%

462-508 (970)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$2.87

Value

$0.47

PnL

-$2.4

Record

43%

773-1033 (1806)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.33

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

445-444 (889)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$1.93

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$1.7

Record

52%

431-401 (832)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 15 top traders (20%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (14 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 8

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.9%

96.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.19

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.