Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (73%). 1 of 1 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will "Adin Ross's Team" lose the most weight in Nozempic 2?
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
1
Yes 100%
2 arb excluded
$335.24
-$22.99
Research grade
AvoidYes at 27%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 1 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA taemaxxARB<$100 | Yesavg 32.7¢ | $171.59 | $167.75 | -$3.84 | — |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 32.7¢ | $114.59 | $94.75 | -$19.84 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 57¢ | $57 | $73 | +$16 | |
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Yesavg 30.7¢ | $111.02 | $111.06 | +$0.04 | 40% 2998-4409 (7407) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 30.7¢ | $65.69 | $57.76 | -$7.92 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 62.1¢ | $45.34 | $53.3 | +$7.96 | |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Yesavg 38¢ | $79.42 | $56.43 | -$22.99 | 23% 80-263 (343) |
Invested
$171.59
Value
$167.75
PnL
-$3.84
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$111.02
Value
$111.06
PnL
+$0.04
Record
40%
2998-4409 (7407)
Both legs:
Invested
$79.42
Value
$56.43
PnL
-$22.99
Record
23%
80-263 (343)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
27.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.