Will Adin Ross lose the most weight in Nozempic 2?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 91¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
2 arb excluded
$1.3K
$17.53
84.2¢ → 91.3¢
+8% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA taemaxx | Noavg 83.9¢ | $800.93 | $820.65 | +$19.72 | — |
 RelaccsedARB<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $258.3 | $270.24 | +$11.94 | — 3-1 (4) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 85¢ | $211.65 | $214.14 | +$2.49 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 14.1¢ | $46.65 | $56.1 | +$9.45 | |
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 82.1¢ | $156.4 | $159.41 | +$3.01 | 40% 2998-4409 (7407) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 82.1¢ | $110.97 | $116.19 | +$5.22 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 17.9¢ | $45.43 | $43.22 | -$2.21 | |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 94.7¢ | $18.94 | $17.2 | -$1.74 | 28% 2405-6142 (8547) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Yesavg 18.1¢ | $7.32 | $6.88 | -$0.44 | 23% 80-263 (343) |
Invested
$800.93
Value
$820.65
PnL
+$19.72
Record
—
RelaccsedARB<$100Invested
$258.3
Value
$270.24
PnL
+$11.94
Record
—
3-1 (4)
Both legs:
Invested
$156.4
Value
$159.41
PnL
+$3.01
Record
40%
2998-4409 (7407)
Both legs:
Invested
$18.94
Value
$17.2
PnL
-$1.74
Record
28%
2405-6142 (8547)
Invested
$7.32
Value
$6.88
PnL
-$0.44
Record
23%
80-263 (343)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.