Will Abdul El-Sayed run 6 to 9 points behind Jocelyn Benson?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 98¢ · $451 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$450.91
$165.3
91.1¢ → 98¢
+8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 10.8¢ | $76.32 | $116.3 | +$75.31 | 36% 16083-28096 (44179) |
 viniiCTR | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $4.94 | $111.61 | +$106.68 | 74% 2795-1006 (3801) |
 balthazar | Noavg 99.5¢ | $109.45 | $89.65 | -$19.8 | 61% 21355-13647 (35002) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 94.4¢ | $91.84 | $74.07 | -$1.61 | 18% 366-1654 (2020) |
 clazzy1<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $54.54 | $59.27 | +$4.73 | 62% 413-249 (662) |
Invested
$76.32
Value
$116.3
PnL
+$75.31
Record
36%
16083-28096 (44179)
viniiCTRInvested
$4.94
Value
$111.61
PnL
+$106.68
Record
74%
2795-1006 (3801)
balthazarInvested
$109.45
Value
$89.65
PnL
-$19.8
Record
61%
21355-13647 (35002)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$91.84
Value
$74.07
PnL
-$1.61
Record
18%
366-1654 (2020)
clazzy1<$100Invested
$54.54
Value
$59.27
PnL
+$4.73
Record
62%
413-249 (662)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.