Will Abdul El-Sayed run 3 to 6 points behind Jocelyn Benson?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 51¢ · $786 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
1 arb excluded
$785.72
$284.41
26.3¢ → 50.5¢
+92% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+15 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Late
70h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836 | Yesavg 23.5¢ | $184.92 | $398.05 | +$213.13 | 61% 203-131 (334) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 50.3¢ | $229.01 | $219.97 | -$2.62 | 23% 290-994 (1284) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 47.3¢ | $105.11 | $113.32 | +$2.66 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 50.3¢ | $111.85 | $106.65 | -$5.28 | |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Yesavg 47.2¢ | $84.64 | $72.22 | +$1.28 | 18% 521-2334 (2855) |
 clazzy1<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $23.17 | $53.6 | +$30.43 | 62% 381-233 (614) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 62.4¢ | $459.93 | $41.88 | +$39.57 | 36% 15138-27265 (42403) |
Invested
$184.92
Value
$398.05
PnL
+$213.13
Record
61%
203-131 (334)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$229.01
Value
$219.97
PnL
-$2.62
Record
23%
290-994 (1284)
Both legs:
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$84.64
Value
$72.22
PnL
+$1.28
Record
18%
521-2334 (2855)
clazzy1<$100Invested
$23.17
Value
$53.6
PnL
+$30.43
Record
62%
381-233 (614)
Invested
$459.93
Value
$41.88
PnL
+$39.57
Record
36%
15138-27265 (42403)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.