Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (65%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 35¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.6K
-$158.58
49¢ → 35¢
-29% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 35%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-10 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
604h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
14 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
88 881112 | Noavg 52¢ | $461.68 | $577.1 | +$115.42 | 37% 554-927 (1481) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 55.7¢ | $538.03 | $442.22 | +$7.65 | 36% 14842-26964 (41806) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 55.7¢ | $220.65 | $257.4 | +$30.84 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 41.1¢ | $217.18 | $184.82 | -$23.19 | |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR | Yesavg 50.2¢ | $502 | $315 | -$187 | 56% 15238-11764 (27002) |
 CarCTR | Yesavg 47.6¢ | $373.1 | $274.36 | -$98.74 | 67% 4136-2001 (6137) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 35.9¢ | $12.92 | $23.4 | +$11.74 | 18% 3781-17071 (20852) |
Invested
$461.68
Value
$577.1
PnL
+$115.42
Record
37%
554-927 (1481)
Invested
$538.03
Value
$442.22
PnL
+$7.65
Record
36%
14842-26964 (41806)
Both legs:
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTRInvested
$502
Value
$315
PnL
-$187
Record
56%
15238-11764 (27002)
CarCTRInvested
$373.1
Value
$274.36
PnL
-$98.74
Record
67%
4136-2001 (6137)
2B9S<$100Invested
$12.92
Value
$23.4
PnL
+$11.74
Record
18%
3781-17071 (20852)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
35.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.