Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Aaron Sorkin win Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $5 held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$4.95

Combined PnL

-$12.21

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$4.95

Total Shares521

Combined PnL-$12.21

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$1.64	$1.64	+$0	29% 888-2164 (3052)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$2.86	$1.12	-$1.75	37% 3428-5859 (9287)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$2.28	$0.89	-$1.39	38% 58-96 (154)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$1.19	$0.46	-$0.73	47% 4795-5410 (10205)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$0.86	$0.33	-$0.52	7% 2-28 (30)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$0.73	$0.29	-$0.45	39% 1060-1645 (2705)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$0.37	$0.14	-$0.22	30% 2929-6854 (9783)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$38.36	$0.08	-$7.14	40% 3217-4824 (8041)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.64

Value

$1.64

PnL

+$0

Record

29%

888-2164 (3052)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.86

Value

$1.12

PnL

-$1.75

Record

37%

3428-5859 (9287)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.28

Value

$0.89

PnL

-$1.39

Record

38%

58-96 (154)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.19

Value

$0.46

PnL

-$0.73

Record

47%

4795-5410 (10205)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.86

Value

$0.33

PnL

-$0.52

Record

2-28 (30)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.73

Value

$0.29

PnL

-$0.45

Record

39%

1060-1645 (2705)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.37

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$0.22

Record

30%

2929-6854 (9783)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.36

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$7.14

Record

40%

3217-4824 (8041)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.