Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will A Win the IEM Beijing 2026?
Resolved No. 100% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
17
Yes 100%
$0
-$3.84
Smart Money Signal
17 of 17 top traders (100%)17 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $0.36 | — | -$0.36 | 63% 33619-19478 (53097) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $0.74 | — | -$0.74 | 33% 20011-40834 (60845) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.9¢ | $1.99 | — | -$1.99 | 16% 408-2125 (2533) |
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.11 | — | -$0.11 | 21% 379-1395 (1774) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $0.64 | — | -$0.64 | 28% 3048-7956 (11004) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 34% 33217-64988 (98205) |
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 28% 3390-8578 (11968) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | — | — | +$0 | 49% 43869-46551 (90420) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 27% 659-1763 (2422) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 16% 1392-7374 (8766) |
NO northdrawerCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 56% 23834-18418 (42252) |
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 27% 2564-7034 (9598) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | — | — | +$0 | 38% 16029-25855 (41884) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 40% 6684-10176 (16860) |
DG DG-NOCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 38% 682-1101 (1783) |
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 53% 4656-4095 (8751) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 22% 1839-6343 (8182) |
Invested
$0.36
Value
—
PnL
-$0.36
Record
63%
33619-19478 (53097)
Invested
$0.74
Value
—
PnL
-$0.74
Record
33%
20011-40834 (60845)
Invested
$1.99
Value
—
PnL
-$1.99
Record
16%
408-2125 (2533)
Invested
$0.11
Value
—
PnL
-$0.11
Record
21%
379-1395 (1774)
Invested
$0.64
Value
—
PnL
-$0.64
Record
28%
3048-7956 (11004)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
34%
33217-64988 (98205)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
28%
3390-8578 (11968)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
43869-46551 (90420)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
27%
659-1763 (2422)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
16%
1392-7374 (8766)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
23834-18418 (42252)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
27%
2564-7034 (9598)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
16029-25855 (41884)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
6684-10176 (16860)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
682-1101 (1783)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
4656-4095 (8751)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
22%
1839-6343 (8182)