Will Bill Hill win the AK-AL House seat?

13 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (76%) · No at 86¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 4

Yes14¢No86¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 76%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$135.64

Smart Money Entry

76.7¢ → 86.5¢

+13% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 17 top traders (76%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,286

Combined PnL+$174.27

Yes4 traders

Total Value$58.53

Total Shares328

Combined PnL-$38.63

No — 76%Yes — 24%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+57 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

5 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 73.2¢	$613.31	$362.39	+$70.65	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 86.4¢	$172.78	$172.88	+$0.1	56% 15814-12510 (28324)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 76.3¢	$257.1	$157.38	+$24.1	45% 2784-3336 (6120)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 71.3¢	$144.09	$127.5	+$20.68	59% 11786-8040 (19826)
Lucerys	Noavg 73.7¢	$111.28	$91.35	+$12.11	78% 12472-3601 (16073)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 63.8¢	$86.16	$63.75	+$40.96	46% 10278-11960 (22238)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 83.6¢	$62.74	$63.75	+$1.01	32% 2469-5347 (7816)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 83.9¢	$35.51	$35.97	+$0.46	47% 2130-2428 (4558)
LP lpgb<$100	Noavg 84.5¢	$30	$31.47	+$1.47	27% 453-1221 (1674)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 76.6¢	$27.63	$30.65	+$3.02	53% 29191-26096 (55287)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 90.8¢	$26.78	$25.08	-$1.7	40% 2163-3205 (5368)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$24	$25	+$1	51% 2399-2351 (4750)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR	Yesavg 21¢	$285.3	$24.69	-$41.17	52% 242-226 (468)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 81.7¢	$8.17	$8.5	+$0.33	49% 8797-9307 (18104)
IN influenz.ethCTR<$100	Yes	$7.91	$7.91	+$0	42% 10332-14359 (24691)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 72.6¢	$6.3	$7.37	+$1.07	39% 1066-1669 (2735)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.9¢	$2.24	$0.93	+$1.55	77% 12233-3755 (15988)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$613.31

Value

$362.39

PnL

+$70.65

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$172.78

Value

$172.88

PnL

+$0.1

Record

56%

15814-12510 (28324)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$257.1

Value

$157.38

PnL

+$24.1

Record

45%

2784-3336 (6120)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$144.09

Value

$127.5

PnL

+$20.68

Record

59%

11786-8040 (19826)

Lucerys

Invested

$111.28

Value

$91.35

PnL

+$12.11

Record

78%

12472-3601 (16073)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$86.16

Value

$63.75

PnL

+$40.96

Record

46%

10278-11960 (22238)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$62.74

Value

$63.75

PnL

+$1.01

Record

32%

2469-5347 (7816)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$35.51

Value

$35.97

PnL

+$0.46

Record

47%

2130-2428 (4558)

lpgb<$100

Invested

$30

Value

$31.47

PnL

+$1.47

Record

27%

453-1221 (1674)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$27.63

Value

$30.65

PnL

+$3.02

Record

53%

29191-26096 (55287)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$26.78

Value

$25.08

PnL

-$1.7

Record

40%

2163-3205 (5368)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24

Value

$25

PnL

+$1

Record

51%

2399-2351 (4750)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR

Yes

Invested

$285.3

Value

$24.69

PnL

-$41.17

Record

52%

242-226 (468)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$8.17

Value

$8.5

PnL

+$0.33

Record

49%

8797-9307 (18104)

influenz.ethCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.91

Value

$7.91

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

10332-14359 (24691)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$6.3

Value

$7.37

PnL

+$1.07

Record

39%

1066-1669 (2735)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.24

Value

$0.93

PnL

+$1.55

Record

77%

12233-3755 (15988)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 17 top traders (76%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+57 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

5 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.64

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.