Will a single person become TIME's 2026 Person of the Year?

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 74¢ · $719 held · ends Feb 1, 2027

Yes74¢No26¢Ends Mon, Feb 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$719.34

Combined PnL

$50.27

Research grade

AvoidYes at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes74%

No27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$589.76

Total Shares776

Combined PnL+$78.96

No3 traders

Total Value$55.95

Total Shares280

Combined PnL-$28.69

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
vinii	Yesavg 65.8¢	$510.8	$589.76	+$78.96	— 5-1 (6)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Yesavg 76¢	$76.35	$73.64	-$2.71	40% 3217-4824 (8041)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 76¢	$50	$50	+$0
└ No leg	Noavg 22.3¢	$26.35	$23.64	-$2.71
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$45.5	$26	-$19.5	12% 6-43 (49)
SP SPLPBCTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$28.05	$17	-$11.05	23% 511-1699 (2210)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 17.1¢	$11.08	$12.95	+$1.86	12% 34-241 (275)

vinii

Yes

Invested

$510.8

Value

$589.76

PnL

+$78.96

Record

—

5-1 (6)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.35

Value

$73.64

PnL

-$2.71

Record

40%

3217-4824 (8041)

Both legs:

Yes$5076¢+$0

No$26.3522.3¢-$2.71

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Invested

$45.5

Value

$26

PnL

-$19.5

Record

12%

6-43 (49)

SPLPBCTR<$100

Invested

$28.05

Value

$17

PnL

-$11.05

Record

23%

511-1699 (2210)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$11.08

Value

$12.95

PnL

+$1.86

Record

12%

34-241 (275)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.