Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 93¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$1.2K
$63.28
81¢ → 92.5¢
+14% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 FrozenParasite | Noavg 76¢ | $15.2 | $675.56 | +$83.57 | 55% 446-365 (811) |
 Slowroasted | Noavg 91¢ | $227.5 | $225 | -$2.5 | 88% 1988-279 (2267) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 13.7¢ | $249.78 | $129.53 | -$20.25 | 36% 15094-27222 (42316) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 92¢ | $122.9 | $121.75 | -$0.17 | 23% 288-962 (1250) |
HI hithitfarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.4¢ | $18.22 | $19.03 | +$0.81 | 57% 575-434 (1009) |
 rabbit007<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $2.7 | $4.5 | +$1.83 | 53% 349-305 (654) |
FrozenParasiteInvested
$15.2
Value
$675.56
PnL
+$83.57
Record
55%
446-365 (811)
SlowroastedInvested
$227.5
Value
$225
PnL
-$2.5
Record
88%
1988-279 (2267)
Invested
$249.78
Value
$129.53
PnL
-$20.25
Record
36%
15094-27222 (42316)
IstarothInvested
$122.9
Value
$121.75
PnL
-$0.17
Record
23%
288-962 (1250)
Invested
$18.22
Value
$19.03
PnL
+$0.81
Record
57%
575-434 (1009)
rabbit007<$100Invested
$2.7
Value
$4.5
PnL
+$1.83
Record
53%
349-305 (654)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.