Will "A Dog's Perfect Christmas" be the top US Netflix movie this week?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $199 held · ends Nov 18

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$198.97

Combined PnL

-$35.42

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 99.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$190.88

Total Shares191

Combined PnL-$1.88

Yes5 traders

Total Value$8.09

Total Shares619

Combined PnL-$33.53

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$84.83	$84.91	+$0.08	42% 1694-2332 (4026)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$56.07	$55.86	-$0.21	28% 1103-2780 (3883)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$79.84	$39.96	-$1.74	38% 317-524 (841)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$14.63	$6.25	-$8.39	38% 3808-6231 (10039)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$5.09	$5.09	+$0.01	47% 887-1007 (1894)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.07	$5.05	-$0.02	51% 945-892 (1837)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$19.37	$0.89	-$8.06	42% 5212-7125 (12337)
DO donthackmeCTR	Yesavg 4.8¢	$163.39	$0.81	-$14.02	26% 55-157 (212)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$1.38	$0.12	-$1.27	52% 202-190 (392)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$35.08	$0.03	-$1.8	35% 3905-7251 (11156)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$84.83

Value

$84.91

PnL

+$0.08

Record

42%

1694-2332 (4026)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$56.07

Value

$55.86

PnL

-$0.21

Record

28%

1103-2780 (3883)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$79.84

Value

$39.96

PnL

-$1.74

Record

38%

317-524 (841)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.63

Value

$6.25

PnL

-$8.39

Record

38%

3808-6231 (10039)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$5.09

Value

$5.09

PnL

+$0.01

Record

47%

887-1007 (1894)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.07

Value

$5.05

PnL

-$0.02

Record

51%

945-892 (1837)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.37

Value

$0.89

PnL

-$8.06

Record

42%

5212-7125 (12337)

donthackmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$163.39

Value

$0.81

PnL

-$14.02

Record

26%

55-157 (212)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.38

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$1.27

Record

52%

202-190 (392)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.08

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.8

Record

35%

3905-7251 (11156)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.