Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (92%). 10 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will "A Dog's Perfect Christmas" be the top global Netflix movie this week?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 7.5¢ · $212 held · ends Nov 18

Yes92¢No8¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$211.82

Combined PnL

-$229.47

Smart Money Entry

26.2¢ → 7.5¢

-71% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 92%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes92%

No8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$211.81

Total Shares2,024

Combined PnL-$229.47

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA GaditimaCTR	Noavg 26.8¢	$411.05	$65.75	-$209.74	48% 249-265 (514)
TY TyshaCTR<$100	Noavg 74.7¢	$50.1	$50.45	+$0.35	24% 38-121 (159)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100	Noavg 15.1¢	$80.02	$46.17	-$33.85	9% 14-144 (158)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 65.1¢	$204.71	$19.57	-$95.3	39% 3600-5658 (9258)
E1 E100hrall012u312nc0cgvvbvc8CTR<$100	Noavg 0.4¢	$0.67	$12.31	+$12.36	3% 1-37 (38)
dips.CTR<$100	Noavg 22.5¢	$26.47	$10.22	-$16.25	47% 877-973 (1850)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Noavg 14.2¢	$3.85	$2.36	-$1.49	61% 1410-891 (2301)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100	Noavg 14.3¢	$3.73	$2.28	-$1.46	51% 142-138 (280)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 6.8¢	$11.1	$2.27	+$115.83	29% 232-564 (796)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 7¢	$0.35	$0.43	+$0.08	65% 4289-2310 (6599)

GaditimaCTR

Invested

$411.05

Value

$65.75

PnL

-$209.74

Record

48%

249-265 (514)

TyshaCTR<$100

Invested

$50.1

Value

$50.45

PnL

+$0.35

Record

24%

38-121 (159)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100

Invested

$80.02

Value

$46.17

PnL

-$33.85

Record

14-144 (158)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$204.71

Value

$19.57

PnL

-$95.3

Record

39%

3600-5658 (9258)

E100hrall012u312nc0cgvvbvc8CTR<$100

Invested

$0.67

Value

$12.31

PnL

+$12.36

Record

1-37 (38)

dips.CTR<$100

Invested

$26.47

Value

$10.22

PnL

-$16.25

Record

47%

877-973 (1850)

shiifooCTR<$100

Invested

$3.85

Value

$2.36

PnL

-$1.49

Record

61%

1410-891 (2301)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100

Invested

$3.73

Value

$2.28

PnL

-$1.46

Record

51%

142-138 (280)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$11.1

Value

$2.27

PnL

+$115.83

Record

29%

232-564 (796)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$0.35

Value

$0.43

PnL

+$0.08

Record

65%

4289-2310 (6599)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 92%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance8.9%

7.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1018.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

1118.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.