Will "A Dog's Perfect Christmas" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 100¢ · $436 held · ends Nov 18

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$435.7

Combined PnL

$91.16

Smart Money Entry

75.2¢ → 99.8¢

+33% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$434.11

Total Shares435

Combined PnL+$103.91

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.28

Total Shares255

Combined PnL-$12.75

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA Gaditima	Noavg 57¢	$142.6	$249.75	+$107.15	49% 380-398 (778)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$59.78	$59.9	+$0.12	30% 1165-2723 (3888)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$44.96	$44.96	+$0	38% 319-511 (830)
QU quietparcel	Noavg 99.6¢	$116.24	$31.68	-$3.43	37% 305-523 (828)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$30.38	$30.44	+$0.06	53% 7447-6561 (14008)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$15.38	$15.38	+$0	50% 912-916 (1828)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$2	$2	+$0	58% 859-610 (1469)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$9.44	$1.04	-$8.4	38% 3787-6190 (9977)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$11.83	$0.21	-$2.07	28% 1095-2777 (3872)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$2.3	$0.03	-$2.28	52% 198-182 (380)

Gaditima

Invested

$142.6

Value

$249.75

PnL

+$107.15

Record

49%

380-398 (778)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$59.78

Value

$59.9

PnL

+$0.12

Record

30%

1165-2723 (3888)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$44.96

Value

$44.96

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

319-511 (830)

quietparcel

Invested

$116.24

Value

$31.68

PnL

-$3.43

Record

37%

305-523 (828)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$30.38

Value

$30.44

PnL

+$0.06

Record

53%

7447-6561 (14008)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$15.38

Value

$15.38

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

912-916 (1828)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

859-610 (1469)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.44

Value

$1.04

PnL

-$8.4

Record

38%

3787-6190 (9977)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.83

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$2.07

Record

28%

1095-2777 (3872)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.3

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$2.28

Record

52%

198-182 (380)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.