Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 100¢ · $950 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 85%

Total Value

$950.3

Combined PnL

$56.85

Smart Money Entry

81.6¢ → 99.7¢

+22% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$950.27

Total Shares950

Combined PnL+$57.99

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.02

Total Shares9

Combined PnL-$1.14

No — 85%Yes — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

4901h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 83% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 78.8¢	$767.33	$695.5	+$27.94	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
DO donthackme<$100	Noavg 89.8¢	$73.6	$81.81	+$8.21	73% 12875-4800 (17675)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$39.68	$63.18	+$4.85	53% 22636-19888 (42524)
RA rated<$100	Noavg 69.8¢	$31.41	$39	+$7.58	29% 2904-7032 (9936)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$29.94	$29.91	-$0.03	49% 8857-9362 (18219)
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100	Noavg 70.6¢	$26.33	$9.66	+$2.86	33% 6464-13327 (19791)
IN influenz.eth<$100	Noavg 73.3¢	$67.54	$8.35	+$2.39	42% 10359-14389 (24748)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 94.6¢	$7.32	$7.72	+$0.41	42% 7028-9819 (16847)
CR cry.eth2<$100	Noavg 86¢	$21.35	$7.15	+$3.79	40% 9714-14610 (24324)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$6.19	$6.19	-$0	77% 12539-3686 (16225)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$1.8	$1.8	-$0	59% 11849-8194 (20043)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.6¢	$1.05	$0.02	-$1.03	77% 12312-3779 (16091)
flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.6¢	$0.11	$0	-$0.11	39% 993-1548 (2541)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$767.33

Value

$695.5

PnL

+$27.94

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

donthackme<$100

Invested

$73.6

Value

$81.81

PnL

+$8.21

Record

73%

12875-4800 (17675)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$39.68

Value

$63.18

PnL

+$4.85

Record

53%

22636-19888 (42524)

rated<$100

Invested

$31.41

Value

$39

PnL

+$7.58

Record

29%

2904-7032 (9936)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$29.94

Value

$29.91

PnL

-$0.03

Record

49%

8857-9362 (18219)

wokerjoesleeper<$100

Invested

$26.33

Value

$9.66

PnL

+$2.86

Record

33%

6464-13327 (19791)

influenz.eth<$100

Invested

$67.54

Value

$8.35

PnL

+$2.39

Record

42%

10359-14389 (24748)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$7.32

Value

$7.72

PnL

+$0.41

Record

42%

7028-9819 (16847)

cry.eth2<$100

Invested

$21.35

Value

$7.15

PnL

+$3.79

Record

40%

9714-14610 (24324)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$6.19

Value

$6.19

PnL

-$0

Record

77%

12539-3686 (16225)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$1.8

Value

$1.8

PnL

-$0

Record

59%

11849-8194 (20043)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.03

Record

77%

12312-3779 (16091)

flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.11

Value

PnL

-$0.11

Record

39%

993-1548 (2541)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

4901h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 83% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.