Will 6 Jensen Huang affairs be reported by December 31?

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (36%) · No at 95¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 36%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

-$18.51

Smart Money Entry

93.8¢ → 94.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,284

Combined PnL+$9.27

Yes7 traders

Total Value$39.08

Total Shares671

Combined PnL-$27.78

No — 36%Yes — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
D8 D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935	Noavg 93.9¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$2.98	— 11-1 (12)
Car	Noavg 94.2¢	$942.29	$940	-$2.29	68% 1404-648 (2052)
TruongMyLan	Noavg 92¢	$251.83	$257.31	+$5.47	— 1-0 (1)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$35.4	$10.62	-$24.77	39% 3479-5356 (8835)
GD Gdub	Noavg 93¢	$288.88	$9.99	+$3.11	— 3-7 (10)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$10.72	$9.82	-$0.9	25% 91-280 (371)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$7.2	$7.2	+$0	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.7¢	$22.64	$4.2	-$1.5	13% 62-416 (478)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.2¢	$3.91	$3.47	-$0.45	37% 165-281 (446)
LI lissartterCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$2.78	$2.38	-$0.4	40% 10-15 (25)
SN SnoorrasonCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$1.15	$1.38	+$0.23	0% 0-39 (39)

D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935

Invested

$1,877.02

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$2.98

Record

—

11-1 (12)

Car

Invested

$942.29

Value

$940

PnL

-$2.29

Record

68%

1404-648 (2052)

TruongMyLan

Invested

$251.83

Value

$257.31

PnL

+$5.47

Record

—

1-0 (1)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.4

Value

$10.62

PnL

-$24.77

Record

39%

3479-5356 (8835)

Gdub

Invested

$288.88

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$3.11

Record

—

3-7 (10)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.72

Value

$9.82

PnL

-$0.9

Record

25%

91-280 (371)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.2

Value

$7.2

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.64

Value

$4.2

PnL

-$1.5

Record

13%

62-416 (478)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.91

Value

$3.47

PnL

-$0.45

Record

37%

165-281 (446)

lissartterCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.78

Value

$2.38

PnL

-$0.4

Record

40%

10-15 (25)

SnoorrasonCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.15

Value

$1.38

PnL

+$0.23

Record

0-39 (39)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.