Will 5 Jensen Huang affairs be reported by December 31?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 93¢ · $6K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 38%

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

-$37.63

Smart Money Entry

92.7¢ → 92.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares6,041

Combined PnL-$21.19

Yes5 traders

Total Value$55.19

Total Shares755

Combined PnL-$16.44

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Car	Noavg 92.3¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	+$8.4	68% 1404-648 (2052)
D8 D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935	Noavg 93.5¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$30	— 11-1 (12)
TruongMyLan<$100	Noavg 91¢	$37.31	$37.72	+$0.41	— 1-0 (1)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.8¢	$76.61	$16.92	+$3.64	13% 62-416 (478)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$14.3	$13.41	-$0.89	25% 91-280 (371)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$53.33	$11.74	-$18	39% 3479-5356 (8835)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.8¢	$9.4	$8.4	-$1	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.8¢	$4.91	$4.73	-$0.19	37% 165-281 (446)

Car

Invested

$3,691.6

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$8.4

Record

68%

1404-648 (2052)

D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935

Invested

$1,870

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$30

Record

—

11-1 (12)

TruongMyLan<$100

Invested

$37.31

Value

$37.72

PnL

+$0.41

Record

—

1-0 (1)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.61

Value

$16.92

PnL

+$3.64

Record

13%

62-416 (478)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.3

Value

$13.41

PnL

-$0.89

Record

25%

91-280 (371)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.33

Value

$11.74

PnL

-$18

Record

39%

3479-5356 (8835)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.4

Value

$8.4

PnL

-$1

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.91

Value

$4.73

PnL

-$0.19

Record

37%

165-281 (446)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.