Will 210 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between November 9-November 15?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 88¢ · $171 held · ends Nov 16
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Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$170.67
$1.36
81.8¢ → 87.5¢
+7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 83.4¢ | $123.91 | $123.53 | -$0.37 | 41% 3090-4455 (7545) |
SH shiifoo<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $20.25 | $22.5 | +$2.25 | 63% 1314-788 (2102) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $22.91 | $20.23 | -$0.74 | 4% 1-24 (25) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $4.15 | $4.38 | +$0.22 | 26% 1209-3518 (4727) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.