Will 2026 rank between 7th and 9th among the highest domestic box office years?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 54¢ · $318 held · ends Feb 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 20%
$317.5
$20.41
Research grade
NeutralYes at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SH shovelingdigging | Yesavg 46.3¢ | $204.57 | $236.61 | +$32.04 | — 1-6 (7) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $42.4 | $36 | -$6.4 | 51% 32-31 (63) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $22.63 | $21.04 | -$1.59 | 41% 3107-4462 (7569) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $17.49 | $14.85 | -$2.64 | 13% 3-20 (23) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $10 | $9 | -$1 | 51% 4631-4518 (9149) |
Invested
$204.57
Value
$236.61
PnL
+$32.04
Record
—
1-6 (7)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$42.4
Value
$36
PnL
-$6.4
Record
51%
32-31 (63)
Invested
$22.63
Value
$21.04
PnL
-$1.59
Record
41%
3107-4462 (7569)
Invested
$17.49
Value
$14.85
PnL
-$2.64
Record
13%
3-20 (23)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$10
Value
$9
PnL
-$1
Record
51%
4631-4518 (9149)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.