Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will 1win Win the PGL Major Singapore 2026?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $28 held · ends Dec 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Dec 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 88%

Total Value

$27.78

Combined PnL

-$17.09

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$24.38

Total Shares24

Combined PnL+$0.01

Yes7 traders

Total Value$3.41

Total Shares1,363

Combined PnL-$17.1

No — 13%Yes — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

74h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	No	$24.38	$24.38	+$0.01	46% 6642-7775 (14417)
DG DG-NOCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$13.51	$2.5	-$11.01	38% 841-1354 (2195)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$2.7	$0.5	-$2.2	26% 597-1690 (2287)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$1.97	$0.19	-$1.79	25% 683-2050 (2733)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.69	$0.1	-$0.95	50% 66106-66575 (132681)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.53	$0.05	-$0.48	16% 1411-7597 (9008)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$0.47	$0.05	-$0.43	21% 608-2274 (2882)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$0.26	$0.02	-$0.24	32% 21778-45614 (67392)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$24.38

Value

$24.38

PnL

+$0.01

Record

46%

6642-7775 (14417)

DG-NOCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.51

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$11.01

Record

38%

841-1354 (2195)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.7

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$2.2

Record

26%

597-1690 (2287)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.97

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$1.79

Record

25%

683-2050 (2733)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.69

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$0.95

Record

50%

66106-66575 (132681)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.53

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.48

Record

16%

1411-7597 (9008)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.47

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.43

Record

21%

608-2274 (2882)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.26

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.24

Record

32%

21778-45614 (67392)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

74h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.3%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7523.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

7623.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.