Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (97%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between November 2-November 8?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 2.8¢ · $40 held · ended Nov 9
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 100%
$40.1
$11.3
Research grade
AvoidNo at 3%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 97%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100 | Noavg 8.8¢ | $10.95 | $15.25 | +$4.3 | 4% 17-366 (383) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 2.9¢ | $7.85 | $7.77 | -$0.08 | 41% 3007-4413 (7420) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 12.7¢ | $7.6 | $7.32 | -$0.28 | 50% 4494-4439 (8933) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 3¢ | $1.8 | $7.32 | +$5.52 | 52% 5320-4824 (10144) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Noavg 3¢ | $0.6 | $2.44 | +$1.84 | 62% 1295-778 (2073) |
Invested
$10.95
Value
$15.25
PnL
+$4.3
Record
4%
17-366 (383)
Invested
$7.85
Value
$7.77
PnL
-$0.08
Record
41%
3007-4413 (7420)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$7.6
Value
$7.32
PnL
-$0.28
Record
50%
4494-4439 (8933)
Invested
$1.8
Value
$7.32
PnL
+$5.52
Record
52%
5320-4824 (10144)
Invested
$0.6
Value
$2.44
PnL
+$1.84
Record
62%
1295-778 (2073)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
2.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.