Will 13 or more candidates appear on the first-round ballot of the 2027 French presidential election?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 57¢ · $80 held · ends Apr 18, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$79.52
-$10.32
Research grade
NeutralNo at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 53%
Freshness
Mature
36h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $25.42 | $24.15 | -$1.27 | 41% 3126-4493 (7619) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 66.8¢ | $20.3 | $17.62 | -$2.68 | 53% 5689-5114 (10803) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 72.2¢ | $18.05 | $14.5 | -$3.55 | 12% 22-156 (178) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $14.07 | $11.66 | -$2.41 | 51% 40-38 (78) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $12 | $11.6 | -$0.4 | 37% 3224-5382 (8606) |
Invested
$25.42
Value
$24.15
PnL
-$1.27
Record
41%
3126-4493 (7619)
Invested
$20.3
Value
$17.62
PnL
-$2.68
Record
53%
5689-5114 (10803)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$18.05
Value
$14.5
PnL
-$3.55
Record
12%
22-156 (178)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$14.07
Value
$11.66
PnL
-$2.41
Record
51%
40-38 (78)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$12
Value
$11.6
PnL
-$0.4
Record
37%
3224-5382 (8606)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.