Who leaves the Trump administration first: Rubio or Hegseth?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Hegseth (75%) · Hegseth at 78¢ · $537 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
Hegseth
4
Hegseth 75%
$536.92
$50.57
77.6¢ → 78¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralHegseth at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 paddaa | Hegsethavg 77.4¢ | $440.77 | $472.56 | +$49.19 | 60% 497-335 (832) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Hegsethavg 79¢ | $34.34 | $36.72 | +$2.38 | — 1-9 (10) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Rubioavg 23¢ | $23 | $22 | -$1 | 40% 3003-4412 (7415) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Hegsethavg 86¢ | $5.64 | $5.64 | +$0 | — 12-2 (14) |
paddaaInvested
$440.77
Value
$472.56
PnL
+$49.19
Record
60%
497-335 (832)
Invested
$34.34
Value
$36.72
PnL
+$2.38
Record
—
1-9 (10)
Invested
$23
Value
$22
PnL
-$1
Record
40%
3003-4412 (7415)
Invested
$5.64
Value
$5.64
PnL
+$0
Record
—
12-2 (14)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.