Will there be 50 or more West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 96¢ · $497 held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$497.39

Combined PnL

$2.84

Smart Money Entry

96.7¢ → 96.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$488.78

Total Shares493

Combined PnL+$11.65

Yes4 traders

Total Value$8.6

Total Shares253

Combined PnL-$8.8

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Late

144h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 99.9¢	$217.16	$215.42	-$1.74	35% 2886-5323 (8209)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 89.1¢	$94.51	$105.16	+$10.65	40% 3002-4411 (7413)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 93.7¢	$61.84	$65.41	+$3.57	28% 826-2133 (2959)
AK akroll<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$53.67	$53.24	-$0.43	28% 521-1360 (1881)
PO pollo07<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$49.95	$49.55	-$0.4	27% 499-1317 (1816)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.2¢	$7.6	$3.16	-$4.44	23% 80-263 (343)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.7¢	$8.54	$2.72	-$5.82	52% 5301-4808 (10109)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.22	$1.89	+$1.67	25% 1195-3512 (4707)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.3¢	$1.05	$0.84	-$0.21	52% 247-230 (477)

Lucerys

Invested

$217.16

Value

$215.42

PnL

-$1.74

Record

35%

2886-5323 (8209)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$94.51

Value

$105.16

PnL

+$10.65

Record

40%

3002-4411 (7413)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$61.84

Value

$65.41

PnL

+$3.57

Record

28%

826-2133 (2959)

akroll<$100

Invested

$53.67

Value

$53.24

PnL

-$0.43

Record

28%

521-1360 (1881)

pollo07<$100

Invested

$49.95

Value

$49.55

PnL

-$0.4

Record

27%

499-1317 (1816)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.6

Value

$3.16

PnL

-$4.44

Record

23%

80-263 (343)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.54

Value

$2.72

PnL

-$5.82

Record

52%

5301-4808 (10109)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.22

Value

$1.89

PnL

+$1.67

Record

25%

1195-3512 (4707)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$0.84

PnL

-$0.21

Record

52%

247-230 (477)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Late

144h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.6%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.