Visa (V) Q4 payments volume growth (constant dollars) 7.5% to 8.5%?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $630 held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$630.22
$80.31
81.8¢ → 100¢
+22% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Noavg 68.5¢ | $355.68 | $308.53 | +$124.19 | 53% 1090-978 (2068) |
0X 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907e | Noavg 98.5¢ | $158.87 | $143.9 | -$14.97 | 80% 240-60 (300) |
 OraculumNobius | Noavg 99.9¢ | $110.89 | $99.01 | -$11.88 | 90% 5423-611 (6034) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 80.3¢ | $39.64 | $38.01 | -$0.29 | 30% 277-649 (926) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 24.5¢ | $119.94 | $34.29 | -$20.88 | 35% 14681-26851 (41532) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.9¢ | $2.34 | $6.48 | +$4.14 | 32% 4321-9277 (13598) |
Invested
$355.68
Value
$308.53
PnL
+$124.19
Record
53%
1090-978 (2068)
Invested
$158.87
Value
$143.9
PnL
-$14.97
Record
80%
240-60 (300)
OraculumNobiusInvested
$110.89
Value
$99.01
PnL
-$11.88
Record
90%
5423-611 (6034)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$39.64
Value
$38.01
PnL
-$0.29
Record
30%
277-649 (926)
Invested
$119.94
Value
$34.29
PnL
-$20.88
Record
35%
14681-26851 (41532)
Invested
$2.34
Value
$6.48
PnL
+$4.14
Record
32%
4321-9277 (13598)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.