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3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 62¢ · $2K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$1.7K
$99.28
59.6¢ → 62¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 62%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Late
176h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 paddaa | Noavg 63.3¢ | $680 | $709.41 | +$34.79 | 57% 825-632 (1457) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 57.5¢ | $488.31 | $478.58 | +$1.41 | 20% 318-1310 (1628) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 57.5¢ | $269.59 | $309.67 | +$38.22 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 43.8¢ | $205.64 | $168.91 | -$36.81 | |
GL Gladius7 | Noavg 52¢ | $231 | $293.19 | +$64.41 | 49% 90-95 (185) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 41.9¢ | $186 | $178.1 | -$7.9 | 36% 15596-27543 (43139) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $47.18 | $55.16 | +$7.98 | 42% 5218-7151 (12369) |
paddaaInvested
$680
Value
$709.41
PnL
+$34.79
Record
57%
825-632 (1457)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$488.31
Value
$478.58
PnL
+$1.41
Record
20%
318-1310 (1628)
Both legs:
Invested
$231
Value
$293.19
PnL
+$64.41
Record
49%
90-95 (185)
Invested
$186
Value
$178.1
PnL
-$7.9
Record
36%
15596-27543 (43139)
Invested
$47.18
Value
$55.16
PnL
+$7.98
Record
42%
5218-7151 (12369)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.