Will Metropolitanos FC win on 2026-11-04?

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (77%) · No at 94¢ · $14K held · ended Nov 4

Yes7¢No93¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 77%

Total Value

$13.7K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

60.5¢ → 93.5¢

+55% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares12,437

Combined PnL+$33.06

No10 traders

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares11,800

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Yes — 23%No — 77%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU justbusiness1CTR	Yesavg 42¢	$4.7K	$4.8K	+$57.51	54% 267-230 (497)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 62¢	$3.2K	$4.8K	+$1.6K	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
RN1	Noavg 59.2¢	$3.0K	$2.6K	-$360.9	53% 60065-52434 (112499)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 59.7¢	$625.97	$627.32	+$1.35	50% 27770-27632 (55402)
GL glennyorkshireCTR	Yesavg 44.2¢	$491.18	$461.11	-$30.07	44% 175-219 (394)
GC GC-P	Noavg 57¢	$260.99	$267.86	+$6.87	39% 1339-2113 (3452)
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 57¢	$48.42	$49.7	+$1.27	40% 1343-2037 (3380)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 58.3¢	$47.93	$48.06	+$0.13	51% 6278-6033 (12311)
RO Rocky31<$100	Noavg 87.9¢	$53.62	$44.23	-$9.39	75% 1845-630 (2475)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$6.75	$12.38	+$5.63	65% 5174-2807 (7981)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Noavg 58¢	$10	$8.96	-$1.03	74% 2423-864 (3287)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 64¢	$10.85	$8.82	-$2.03	50% 25488-25195 (50683)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 57¢	$1.33	$1.31	-$0.01	59% 11839-8177 (20016)

justbusiness1CTR

Yes

Invested

$4,736.92

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$57.51

Record

54%

267-230 (497)

Flaznorp

Invested

$3,200.21

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

RN1

Invested

$2,960.9

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$360.9

Record

53%

60065-52434 (112499)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$625.97

Value

$627.32

PnL

+$1.35

Record

50%

27770-27632 (55402)

glennyorkshireCTR

Yes

Invested

$491.18

Value

$461.11

PnL

-$30.07

Record

44%

175-219 (394)

GC-P

Invested

$260.99

Value

$267.86

PnL

+$6.87

Record

39%

1339-2113 (3452)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$48.42

Value

$49.7

PnL

+$1.27

Record

40%

1343-2037 (3380)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$47.93

Value

$48.06

PnL

+$0.13

Record

51%

6278-6033 (12311)

Rocky31<$100

Invested

$53.62

Value

$44.23

PnL

-$9.39

Record

75%

1845-630 (2475)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.75

Value

$12.38

PnL

+$5.63

Record

65%

5174-2807 (7981)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$8.96

PnL

-$1.03

Record

74%

2423-864 (3287)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$10.85

Value

$8.82

PnL

-$2.03

Record

50%

25488-25195 (50683)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$1.33

Value

$1.31

PnL

-$0.01

Record

59%

11839-8177 (20016)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.