Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (51%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Academia Puerto Cabello win on 2026-11-12?

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (29%) · Yes at 49¢ · $870 held · ended Nov 12

Yes49¢No51¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 29%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$870.38

Combined PnL

$15.49

Smart Money Entry

64.7¢ → 49¢

-24% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors No 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes49%

No51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$207.61

Total Shares401

Combined PnL+$39.83

Yes2 traders

Total Value$156.13

Total Shares235

Combined PnL-$24.34

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 40.3¢	$257.31	$291.25	+$33.94	51% 2691-2616 (5307)
└ No leg	Noavg 40.3¢	$173.45	$215.13	+$41.68
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 55.1¢	$83.86	$76.12	-$7.74
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Yesavg 61.7¢	$224.29	$215.38	-$8.91	35% 622-1179 (1801)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 61.7¢	$145.35	$117.75	-$27.61
└ No leg	Noavg 38¢	$78.94	$97.64	+$18.7
LI Limousin	Noavg 35.6¢	$137.29	$169.79	+$32.5	33% 589-1191 (1780)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 65¢	$143.74	$118.95	-$24.79	55% 1709-1415 (3124)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 62.9¢	$36.73	$37.18	+$0.46	34% 610-1204 (1814)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 38¢	$20.45	$25.29	+$4.84	33% 593-1215 (1808)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 35.7¢	$3.59	$5.03	+$1.44	35% 235-434 (669)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 43.5¢	$4.35	$5	+$0.65	49% 1338-1368 (2706)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 42¢	$2.1	$2.5	+$0.4	23% 192-655 (847)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$257.31

Value

$291.25

PnL

+$33.94

Record

51%

2691-2616 (5307)

Both legs:

No$173.4540.3¢+$41.68

Yes$83.8655.1¢-$7.74

MadridTimeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$224.29

Value

$215.38

PnL

-$8.91

Record

35%

622-1179 (1801)

Both legs:

Yes$145.3561.7¢-$27.61

No$78.9438¢+$18.7

Limousin

Invested

$137.29

Value

$169.79

PnL

+$32.5

Record

33%

589-1191 (1780)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$143.74

Value

$118.95

PnL

-$24.79

Record

55%

1709-1415 (3124)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.73

Value

$37.18

PnL

+$0.46

Record

34%

610-1204 (1814)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$20.45

Value

$25.29

PnL

+$4.84

Record

33%

593-1215 (1808)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$3.59

Value

$5.03

PnL

+$1.44

Record

35%

235-434 (669)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$4.35

Value

PnL

+$0.65

Record

49%

1338-1368 (2706)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0.4

Record

23%

192-655 (847)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 49%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors No 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.2%

49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$95.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

195.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.