Vance's Republican nomination odds hit 45% by December 31?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 76¢ · $179 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$179.29
-$2.72
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $50.1 | $69.3 | +$19.2 | 40% 3002-4411 (7413) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 15¢ | $27.9 | $46.5 | +$18.6 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 74¢ | $22.2 | $22.8 | +$0.6 | |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 82.8¢ | $76.06 | $56.56 | -$0.5 | — 0-12 (12) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $32.32 | $32.32 | +$0 | — 1-9 (10) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $23.31 | $21.09 | -$2.22 | — 8-8 (16) |
Invested
$50.1
Value
$69.3
PnL
+$19.2
Record
40%
3002-4411 (7413)
Both legs:
Invested
$76.06
Value
$56.56
PnL
-$0.5
Record
—
0-12 (12)
Invested
$32.32
Value
$32.32
PnL
+$0
Record
—
1-9 (10)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$23.31
Value
$21.09
PnL
-$2.22
Record
—
8-8 (16)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.