Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold KRÜ Blaze, while the market favors Gentle Mates GC (63%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Valorant: Gentle Mates GC vs KRÜ Blaze (BO5) - VCT Game Changers Championship Playoffs
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold KRÜ Blaze (33%) · KRÜ Blaze at 38¢ · $27K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
KRÜ Blaze
6
KRÜ Blaze 33%
$26.9K
$163.53
37.1¢ → 37.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralKRÜ Blaze at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Gentle Mates GC 63%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 esportsbetter1CTR | KRÜ Blazeavg 37.1¢ | $18.7K | $18.9K | +$196.98 | 48% 174-188 (362) |
 KateBollinger | Gentle Mates GCavg 64¢ | $6.4K | $6.3K | -$50 | 68% 1753-815 (2568) |
GR gregbeast | Gentle Mates GCavg 65¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$10.6 | 39% 168-262 (430) |
 TobenaiTenshi | Gentle Mates GCavg 64¢ | $256 | $262 | +$6 | 51% 421-398 (819) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Gentle Mates GCavg 63.5¢ | $6.35 | $6.55 | +$0.2 | 52% 7504-6793 (14297) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | KRÜ Blazeavg 36¢ | $5.99 | $5.74 | -$0.25 | 50% 19451-19817 (39268) |
esportsbetter1CTRInvested
$18,735
Value
$18.9K
PnL
+$196.98
Record
48%
174-188 (362)
KateBollingerInvested
$6,400
Value
$6.3K
PnL
-$50
Record
68%
1753-815 (2568)
Invested
$1,299.4
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$10.6
Record
39%
168-262 (430)
TobenaiTenshiInvested
$256
Value
$262
PnL
+$6
Record
51%
421-398 (819)
Invested
$6.35
Value
$6.55
PnL
+$0.2
Record
52%
7504-6793 (14297)
Invested
$5.99
Value
$5.74
PnL
-$0.25
Record
50%
19451-19817 (39268)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.