Spread: FK Neftchi Fargona (-2.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold FK Neftchi Fargona (33%) · FK Neftchi Fargona at 60¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 14

FK Neftchi Fargona60¢FC Bunyodkor40¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FK Neftchi Fargona

Consensus Traders

FK Neftchi Fargona 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.0K

Combined PnL

$751.64

Smart Money Entry

47.1¢ → 59.5¢

+26% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralFK Neftchi Fargona at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FK Neftchi Fargona

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

FK Neftchi Fargona60%

FC Bunyodkor41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FK Neftchi Fargona3 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares6,898

Combined PnL+$1.1K

FC Bunyodkor6 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares4,255

Combined PnL-$379.21

FK Neftchi Fargona — 33%FC Bunyodkor — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on FK Neftchi Fargona. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFC Bunyodkor 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedFC Bunyodkor 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000FC Bunyodkor 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU justbusiness1	FK Neftchi Fargonaavg 46.9¢	$3.2K	$4.3K	+$1.1K	5% 1-21 (22)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	FC Bunyodkoravg 53.4¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	-$68.56	53% 2083-1825 (3908)
└ FC Bunyodkor leg	FC Bunyodkoravg 53.4¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$15.38
└ FK Neftchi Fargona leg	FK Neftchi Fargonaavg 50.5¢	$773.21	$720.03	-$53.18
BA BayupatiCTR	FC Bunyodkoravg 52¢	$846.3	$659.14	-$187.16	18% 31-144 (175)
MA MadridTimeCTR	FC Bunyodkoravg 49.2¢	$783.36	$644.77	-$138.6	37% 966-1630 (2596)
BI biying99999CTR	FC Bunyodkoravg 52.8¢	$257.12	$238.63	-$18.49	35% 104-192 (296)
VeryLucky888CTR	FC Bunyodkoravg 54¢	$324	$159.18	-$33.32	53% 1340-1169 (2509)
FL Flaznorp<$100	FK Neftchi Fargonaavg 55.8¢	$76.06	$83.15	+$7.09	49% 3807-3970 (7777)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	FC Bunyodkoravg 49¢	$80.42	$78.78	-$1.64	37% 957-1658 (2615)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	FC Bunyodkoravg 49¢	$25.8	$25.8	+$0	36% 945-1666 (2611)
SU suntori<$100	FK Neftchi Fargonaavg 51¢	$5.14	$4.69	-$0.45	46% 2602-3088 (5690)

justbusiness1

FK Neftchi Fargona

Invested

$3,181.03

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

1-21 (22)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

FC Bunyodkor

Invested

$2,841.26

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$68.56

Record

53%

2083-1825 (3908)

Both legs:

FC Bunyodkor$2,068.0553.4¢-$15.38

FK Neftchi Fargona$773.2150.5¢-$53.18

BayupatiCTR

FC Bunyodkor

Invested

$846.3

Value

$659.14

PnL

-$187.16

Record

18%

31-144 (175)

MadridTimeCTR

FC Bunyodkor

Invested

$783.36

Value

$644.77

PnL

-$138.6

Record

37%

966-1630 (2596)

biying99999CTR

FC Bunyodkor

Invested

$257.12

Value

$238.63

PnL

-$18.49

Record

35%

104-192 (296)

VeryLucky888CTR

FC Bunyodkor

Invested

$324

Value

$159.18

PnL

-$33.32

Record

53%

1340-1169 (2509)

Flaznorp<$100

FK Neftchi Fargona

Invested

$76.06

Value

$83.15

PnL

+$7.09

Record

49%

3807-3970 (7777)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

FC Bunyodkor

Invested

$80.42

Value

$78.78

PnL

-$1.64

Record

37%

957-1658 (2615)

VenusianCTR<$100

FC Bunyodkor

Invested

$25.8

Value

$25.8

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

945-1666 (2611)

suntori<$100

FK Neftchi Fargona

Invested

$5.14

Value

$4.69

PnL

-$0.45

Record

46%

2602-3088 (5690)

Research grade

NeutralFK Neftchi Fargona at 60%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

FK Neftchi Fargona

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on FK Neftchi Fargona. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFC Bunyodkor 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedFC Bunyodkor 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000FC Bunyodkor 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FK Neftchi Fargona wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.