VfL Wolfsburg vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam: Both Teams to Score
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 59¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$1.4K
$127.61
33.5¢ → 58.5¢
+75% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Yesavg 37.3¢ | $377.11 | $419.96 | +$42.85 | 49% 18616-19046 (37662) |
0X 0xD67942cD1c1AF4287F80Fe5F11A01DB65Cf491A0-1767718931081CTR | Noavg 68¢ | $459.68 | $395.46 | -$64.22 | 50% 219-215 (434) |
UP UpTheBlues | Yesavg 32¢ | $201.36 | $259.91 | +$58.55 | 59% 44632-31032 (75664) |
LU LuckyLoo | Yesavg 28.3¢ | $77.54 | $175.63 | +$98.09 | 50% 12125-12330 (24455) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846 | Yesavg 32¢ | $176.88 | $163.06 | -$13.82 | 59% 30098-20824 (50922) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Yesavg 32.2¢ | $21.39 | $27.55 | +$6.16 | 36% 14881-26989 (41870) |
Invested
$377.11
Value
$419.96
PnL
+$42.85
Record
49%
18616-19046 (37662)
Invested
$459.68
Value
$395.46
PnL
-$64.22
Record
50%
219-215 (434)
Invested
$201.36
Value
$259.91
PnL
+$58.55
Record
59%
44632-31032 (75664)
Invested
$77.54
Value
$175.63
PnL
+$98.09
Record
50%
12125-12330 (24455)
Invested
$176.88
Value
$163.06
PnL
-$13.82
Record
59%
30098-20824 (50922)
Invested
$21.39
Value
$27.55
PnL
+$6.16
Record
36%
14881-26989 (41870)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.